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Market Outlook

RBA, FED & ECB meeting minutes in focus

The previous week was replete with political events and economic releases from the major economies.

Gold gained from an improvement in risk off sentiment as it tested resistance at $1296 on Friday amid media reports that Special Counsel Thomas Mueller in his investigation into possible complicity of US President Donald Trump's campaign in Russian efforts to influence last year's election has requested for more documents from Trump’s electoral team. The difference of opinion from the Senate over Trump’s tax reform bill also boosted gold.

EURUSD gained from a feeble Dollar and short squeeze as it rallied 200 pips to end the week at 1.1775. The previous break of support at 1.1650 was a technical depiction with emphasis for a move towards 1.1450, buttressing short positions. But dearth of follow-through selling has now pressured the shorts stopping out many of their trades, speeding the move still more.

GBPUSD gained from the poise it acquired after 1.3060 was defended the week before. UK figures for the week were a mixed bag with CPI sticking to 3.0%, the employment index fell for the first time in 8 months while retail sales recovered slightly. GBPUSD had a robust week to finish at 1.3212.

USDJPY pushed dollar lower, losing 150 pips to finish the week at 112.08.

USDCAD had a comparatively uneventful week, as weak inflation statistics during the previous week offset gains from a feeble dollar and a greater oil price. Canadian inflation last week was 1.40% lesser than 1.60 registered in the erstwhile month.

Gold bulls would want to shake off the resistance at $1296 at the earliest for another shot at 1310 levels. $1296 has proved a tough nut to crack on many past occasions, but an improvement in geopolitical tensions might aid the bulls. Saudi Arabia has summoned a crucial Arab meeting in Cairo to discuss Iran’s interference in Arab affairs. Matters in the Gulf look set to grab focus again and any escalation of tensions would have the Gold bulls thrilled.

EURUSD has painted a very robust bullish picture last week. Thursday would be the day of the week for EURUSD investors as a host of German and Euro area figures are expected along with the minutes of the previous ECB meeting. Instant support for EURUSD comes in at 1.1730.

GBPUSD continues to be in the 1.3340 – 1.3040 range and demonstrates no signs of rupture anytime soon. The coming week is easy on economic data from UK except for Thursday’s GDP announcement. Instant support lies at 1.3170.

Bears have an advantage in USDJPY but they would have their job figured out as firm support exists at 111.75, where 200 and 100 DMA meet.

USDCAD has support at 1.2720 and resistance at 1.2920. Thursday sees the release of Canadian retails sales figures that could provide an understanding of the condition of the Canadian economy. Preference would be for USDCAD to trade sideways to lower as long as 1.2920 is positive.